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WTC scenarios – England’s chances take a hit – SL, Bangladesh still in contention

With 12 series (30 Tests) to go in the current World Test Championship cycle, the race for the top two spots is getting more intense. Going by the percentage scores of the finalists in the last cycle – 66.67 for Australia and 58.8 for India – teams will be looking to get to the 60% mark to give themselves a shot at the Lord’s final. Here is a look at how they are placed, and their chances of qualifying.

Sri Lanka

Percent: 42.86, series remaining: New Zealand (two home Tests), South Africa (two away), Australia (two home)

The Oval win keeps Sri Lanka in contention for a top-two finish. If they win all six remaining matches, they’ll finish with 69.23, which will almost certainly take them to the final. Five out of six wins will take them to 61.54, which will still keep them in contention. Four of their six remaining Tests are at home, against New Zealand and Australia.

England

Percent: 42.19, series remaining: Pakistan (three away Tests), NZ (three away)

England’s unexpected defeat at The Oval against Sri Lanka means they can no longer breach the 60% mark in this cycle. The maximum they can achieve now, with wins in their six remaining Tests, is 57.95. That could still be enough if other results go their way.

For instance, if India run away from the rest of the pack, then England can finish second if Australia get no more than 42 points out of the 84 on offer from their seven remaining Tests, and if other teams stay below 57.95 as well. If Australia finish on top then England need India to take no more than 58 points and stay below 57.95. However, if England drop more points – five wins and a draw will reduce their percentage to 54.92 – they will need even more help from other teams.

India

Percent: 68.52, series remaining: Bangladesh (two home Tests), NZ (three home), Australia (five away)

India remain on top of the table with a healthy percentage of 68.52, but they still have 10 matches to go, the most for any team. To keep their percentage above 60 – they qualified for the 2023 final with 58.8 – they need 63 more points, which they can achieve with five wins and a draw. Six wins will lift the percentage to 64.03, but to match their current score they will need seven wins, which will lift their overall percentage to 69.3.

Australia

Percent: 62.50, series remaining: India (five home Tests), SL (two away)

Currently in second place, Australia need 47 more points from their remaining seven Tests to finish on the right side of 60%. They can achieve that with either four wins, or three wins and three draws. To a large extent, their final standing will depend on how many points they rack up in the five-Test home series against India.

Bangladesh

Percent: 45.83, series remaining: India (two away Tests), West Indies (two away), South Africa (two home)

Bangladesh’s terrific 2-0 series win in Pakistan has pushed their percentage up to 45.83 and fourth position in the points table. If they win each of their six remaining Tests, they will go up to 72.92, while four wins out of six will keep them at 56.25.

Pakistan

Percent: 19.05, series remaining: England (three home Tests), SA (two away), WI (two home)

Pakistan not only lost 2-0 to Bangladesh, but they also dropped six points due to slow over-rates. Their percentage dropped from 36.66 at the start of the series to 19.05. From here, the maximum they can achieve is 59.52, if they win each of their seven remaining Tests.

New Zealand

Percent: 50.00, series remaining: SL (two away Tests), India (three away), England (three home)

New Zealand have played only six out of their 14 Tests in this cycle. Five of their eight remaining Tests will be in Asia. Out of the 96 points available, they need at least 65 to finish on 60%. That means five wins and a couple of draws (or six wins), but it’s a tough ask given three of those Tests will be in India.

South Africa

Percent: 38.89, series remaining: SL (two home Tests), Pakistan (two home), Bangladesh (two away)

If South Africa win each of their next six Tests, they will finish on 69.44, which will almost certainly take them to the final. They have home series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan later this year, apart from what could be a tricky two-Test series in Bangladesh.

West Indies

Percent: 18.52, series remaining: Bangladesh (two home Tests), Pakistan (two away)

West Indies have already played four series and have only scored 20 points out of 108. Even if they win their last four Tests, they can only finish on 43.59%.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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