Contrary to widespread concerns that global crop yields have stagnated in recent decades, a comprehensive study of worldwide food production finds yields have continued to grow at roughly the same rate since the 1960s. John Baffes of the World Bank and Xiaoli Etienne of the University of Idaho, U.S., report these findings on November 27, 2024, in the open-access journal PLOS ONE.
Almost 10 billion people are expected to inhabit Earth by 2050, so agricultural production will become increasingly critical to feeding the growing population. Over the past six decades, much of the growth in food production has stemmed from technological advances, including the widespread development and use of better crop varieties. But some studies have suggested that the growth in production has leveled off, raising concerns about future food availability, especially in the low- and middle-income countries with the highest population growth.
In the new study, the researchers developed standardized measures for production and yield for 144 crops, covering 98 percent of global agricultural land. These measures allow scientists and policymakers to compare agricultural productivity across different countries and regions. The researchers found that there has been no discernable slowdown in the global growth of crop yields during the last six decades — any observed slowdown in specific crops, regions or countries has been offset by gains in others. Their findings show that yields grew annually at a rate equivalent to about 33 kg of wheat per hectare.
While the study’s findings are reassuring from a global food supply perspective, the researchers caution that sustainable food production and the affordability of food will continue to be challenges to global food security. They emphasize that these concerns are particularly relevant in the face of intensifying climate change and increased demand for food due to population and income growth.
The authors add: “Utilizing a comprehensive caloric-based index of production and yield for 144 crops, covering 98% of global agricultural land and food output, this paper reveals that, on an aggregate level, global yield growth — a vital indicator of agricultural productivity — has not slowed over the past six decades. This steady growth equates to an annual increase of approximately 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare, highlighting continued productivity gains worldwide.”