Why The Manual Gearbox Is Disappearing And What’s Driving Its Decline

BMW M boss Frank van Meel famously said earlier this year that the manual gearbox “doesn’t really make sense from an engineering standpoint.” He reasons that manuals limit the engine’s torque, whereas an automatic can handle the full power delivered by the company’s signature inline-six. Of course, engineers could develop a beefier transmission capable of unlocking the engine’s full potential, but cost is a major factor.

Demand for manuals isn’t what it used to be, although one could argue sales would be higher if more automakers still offered three pedals. Pouring money into a new manual, knowing from the outset it would struggle sales-wise, is hard to justify. However, that’s not to say BMW is completely giving up on letting drivers row their own gears.

According to the M division’s Vice President, Customer, Brand, and Sales, BMW isn’t ready to call time on manuals just yet. Sylvia Neubauer told Automobilwoche that engineers are working on a solution to keep the clutch pedal alive even as the 3.0-liter engine continues to gain power. Although she refrained from going into details, the M executive “promises a solution,” according to the German report.

As for what that could entail, BMW may be looking into artificially limiting the engine’s output to preserve the manual’s long-term durability. This has already been happening for some time, as the M2 with the automatic has 50 Nm (37 lb-ft) more torque than the same car equipped with a manual.

With or without a manual in its portfolio, BMW isn’t abandoning high-performance combustion-engine cars. Even as electric M models inch closer, ICE still has a future in Munich. The company has already confirmed a next-generation M3 with a six-cylinder engine, expected to launch in 2028. That timeline suggests the sports sedan will remain on sale well into the 2030s, by which point there will likely be a wide range of M-badged EVs.

Even if the next M3 doesn’t get a manual, there’s still time to buy the current generation. It’s likely to bow out by the end of this year or in early 2027, considering the 3 Series is about to switch generations. In the meantime, BMW is removing one model from its list of manual offerings: the Z4 M40i. The roadster goes out of production this month, leaving only the M2, M3, and M4 with a stick shift.

The M2 and M4 coupes could remain in production until closer to the end of the decade, giving enthusiasts roughly three more years to buy a six-speed BMW M car. Looking ahead, the future doesn’t look promising for manuals, and it’s not just because of low take rates and limited power. Frank van Meel also pointed to higher fuel consumption, which may not matter to some performance-car buyers.

However, stricter emissions regulations are accelerating the manual’s demise. If an automaker can achieve lower CO₂ levels with an automatic, the manual becomes vulnerable. It’s a numbers game in Europe, where automakers are racing to meet ever-tightening regulations and avoid hefty fines for exceeding fleet emissions targets.

Suppliers aren’t particularly eager to produce small volumes of manual gearboxes either, as economies of scale are harder to achieve with low-volume products. On top of that, increasingly complex driver-assistance systems are primarily designed to work with automatics, adding yet another nail to the manual’s coffin.

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Source: BMW

Motor1’s Take: It’s easy to get frustrated with BMW and other automakers for phasing out manuals, but the odds are stacked against the six-speed for all the reasons above. It’s unrealistic to expect any company to sell a product at a loss, especially when the industry is under financial pressure.

Developing EVs is essential and requires massive investment, making niche products like manual performance cars a low priority. That’s just how the cookie crumbles in today’s automotive industry, so if you want a manual, it might be wise to get one while you still can.